The NFL is experiencing a surge of interest among bettors from across the Atlantic, due in part to the regular season matches now taking place in our region. However, the appeal also lies in the comprehensive array of data available to inform bets, as well as the straightforward and lucrative nature of the betting markets.
If it’s fairness and value you’re after in sports betting, then the NFL should be your go-to. Tips from Neds and other bookmakers can help guide your bets, but here are our tips on how to get the most out of betting on the NFL.
Handicaps & Spreads
Three primary betting types dominate the NFL wagering scene: money line bets, total points bets, and spread bets. Moneyline bets are straightforward, placing your stake on the game’s outright victor.
Total points bets pivot on predicting if the total score will surpass or fall short of a given number. Spread bets, however, are the powerhouse of NFL betting, often referred to as ‘point spread.’
This betting type levels the playing field, considering the varying potentials of NFL teams by giving a point advantage to one side, making the odds nearly even. This approach offers bettors two key benefits: firstly, it allows for a bet at nearly 2.0 odds, even in what could be one-sided games, and secondly, it brings the oddsmakers’ perspective into the mix.
This bears significance as oddsmakers can make errors, providing savvy bettors with profitable opportunities.
Strategizing the Spread
When wagering on spread bets, several critical factors govern your decision-making process:
- Projecting the potential points each team might rack up in a game is crucial. Factors like weather conditions, injuries, and home-field advantages can significantly impact the expected points. Thus, it’s essential to evaluate these elements in conjunction with the spread lines to determine which team is more likely to exceed its line.
- Exercise prudence in your betting choices. It’s not mandatory to bet on every game. Being selective could pay off. There will be occasions every week when you’re fairly certain one team will surpass the spread line with a likelihood greater than 53%.
- Place your bets early. A simple yet effective tactic to capitalize on the spread is to bet as soon as the spread lines for the games are announced. The spread lines for NFL games tend to fluctuate frequently in the run-up to the games. For instance, betting on the Giants at -3.0 at 1.91 a week ahead of the game might be more advantageous than wagering on the Giants at -6.0 at 1.91 just hours ahead of kick-off.
Avoid the Noise
Much of the media’s role revolves around promoting NFL games to attract viewership. They often generate sensational stories about upcoming matches, creating a noise that can be misleading.
Successful NFL bettors are those who can sift through this media chatter and leverage the abundant data available to identify profitable betting opportunities. An effective strategy when betting on the NFL is to focus on statistics and historical data.
Websites like Pro Football Reference offer valuable insights into individual matchups and team performances. NFL players and teams typically maintain a certain level of consistency, and statistically superior teams are often contenders for the season’s top honors.
A smart strategy for NFL betting is to ‘fade’ the public; that is, to bet against the crowd’s favorite. If the public heavily backs a team for an upcoming game, it can prompt the oddsmakers to adjust the odds to encourage more bets on the opposing team.
The aim is to reduce the appeal and value of the crowd’s favorite, moving the odds away from the likelihood of that team overtaking the spread.
However, this can be beneficial for perceptive bettors. They can monitor the line movements and place their bets on their preferred team when the line peaks and the greatest value is up for grabs.
- Keep track of injuries and suspensions – these can significantly impact team performance and thus affect betting outcomes.
- Study historical data and trends – past performances can give valuable insights into how teams may perform in future games.
- Don’t chase losses – it’s essential to stay disciplined and stick to your betting strategy, even when faced with losses.
- Consider alternative markets – in addition to the standard handicaps and spreads, there are several other betting options available for NFL games. These include first-half and second-half bets, player performance bets, and team prop bets.
Tips for Responsible NFL Betting
As with any form of gambling, it’s crucial to bet responsibly when betting on the NFL. Here are some tips to keep in mind:
Don’t Go Beyond Your Budget
Set a budget for your NFL betting and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses by betting more than you can afford. For example, if you have a $100 budget for the week, don’t place bets totaling more than that, even if it means missing out on some potential winning opportunities.
Be knowledgeable about NFL betting and the markets available. The more informed you are, the better decisions you can make when placing your bets.
Don’t Bet Under the Influence
Avoid betting when under the influence of alcohol or drugs. These substances can impair your judgment and lead to poor betting decisions.
It’s essential to take breaks from betting, especially when you’ve experienced a series of losses. This will help you reset and come back with a clear mind.
Avoid Emotional Betting
Emotional betting, also known as ’tilt’ betting, is when you let your emotions influence your betting choices. This can often lead to impulsive and poor decisions that result in losses. Avoid emotional betting and stick to your strategy.
Avoid Chasing Losses
Chasing losses is a common mistake made by many bettors. When faced with a series of losses, some may be tempted to place larger bets in hopes of winning back their losses. This can lead to even greater losses and should be avoided.
It’s important to always bet responsibly when it comes to NFL betting. By following these tips and strategies, you can increase your chances of success while also maintaining control over your betting habits. Remember to always gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Betting on the NFL can be immensely rewarding, but it requires a sound understanding of the betting markets and an ability to cut through the noise created by media hype. By focusing on spread bets, being selective with your bets, and leveraging valuable data available online, you can increase your chances of success in NFL betting.
Remember to strategize and stay disciplined while placing your bets, and keep an eye on the line movements to capitalize on the best value. Good luck!